Do Midterm Elections Affect the President?
If you're wondering whether midterm general elections affect the president… yes, they definitely do. Here’s how!
First, let’s be clear on definitions:
- A “midterm” election is defined as an election that takes place halfway through the 4-year Presidential term.
- Expressed in another way: the midterm elections are held in the “middle of the 4-year term”, that is two years after the 4-year Presidential term has begun. Yes, that is why it is called MID-term!
- Let’s get specific: The most recent Presidential General Election was in 2024, and he has a 4-year term in office. Midway through, or “midterm”, is 2026. So, we are now in a Midterm General Election year. All states will hold midterm elections in 2026.
Who’s on the ballot in midterm elections?
Most states will have multiple races and issues on their ballots, but the one that concerns the President the most are the congressional races. These are for U.S. House of Representatives and for U.S. Senate.
In 2026, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, plus 35 U.S. Senate seats will be decided across the states. These congressional lawmakers are extremely powerful. They control the legislative branch of our federal government. Although the source and mechanisms of their power are different, congress’ legislative branch wields incredible power and influence over the executive branch of the President. Congress can pass laws that the President agrees with, or decide to pass laws with which he does not agree. In this way, congress is instrumental to controlling the President’s agenda.
The composition of congress, and which party in congress has greater power to decide laws and decide whether to support or modify or reject the President’s actions, will greatly affect the President and the success of his administration… or lack of it.
Hear's the Bottom Line: the midterm elections for U.S. Congress are vastly important to the President.
Let’s explore how the midterm elections affect the president
Since the midterms are held half way through the presidents’ term, they can be seen as a barometer on how he’s doing.
- The president’s job approval has a strong impact on the outcome of midterm congressional elections for both the U.S. House and Senate.
- There are wide variations, but the overall correlation is clear: The higher his job approval, the fewer the losses that his party experiences.
- As Election Day approaches, the correlation becomes closer.
Voters typically want change and therefore, the president’s party typically loses ground in midterm House elections. That is what happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938!
Midterms often have a negative impact on the president. As we know, the fewer number of members of congress of the same party as the president, the more difficult it is for the president to find support for his agenda.
According to Prof. Michael Genovese at Loyola Marymount University, there is a phenomenon of power in the presidency lasting two out 4 years of the president’s term chiefly due to the balance of power in congress often changing with the midterm elections. He highlights the fact that there is a maximum number of congresspersons in the same party as the president during just the first two years of their term, thus creating a “two-year presidency”.
The outcome of midterm elections does not however, predict the winner of the following presidential election.
- From 1952 to 2012 there have been 13 instances where the sitting president has lost seats in the House in a midterm election.
- Of these elections, the incumbent party is able to move on to elect a president in 6 instances, while the incumbent party has lost the White House in the other six.
The 2026 midterms will have important consequences for the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, but regardless of what happens in November, the 2028 presidential election campaign will begin the very next day, and it will be anyone’s game.
This year, the midterm primary elections begin in March and end in mid-September.
See the Upcoming 2026 Primary Dates Chart
The midterm general election follows on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
See our Midterm Blog Series for More Information
Everything You Need to Participate in the Midterm Primaries
What Are Congressional Midterm Primaries
When Are the 2026 Midterm Elections and What is their Purpose?